Obama on China

Filed in archive News on November 7, 2008

"The basic framework of U.S. policy under an Obama administration will not fundamentally change," said Cui Liru, president of the China Institute of Contemporary International Relations, in Beijing today (according to Huffington Post writer Michael Standaert.

There's been a lot said about what an Obama Presidency would mean to U.S. China relations - particularly for our economic ties. Obama has at times sounded like a protectionist, willing to break ties with China and insulate the U.S. economy. He wants to see the Chinese currency, the yuan renminbi floated more freely and allowed to strengthen to something closer to its real value on world markets. But that alone is not protectionism; even the Bush Administration wanted that. Will Obama be more confrontational in his approach to China on the issue? Will he create tariffs for Chinese goods?

A number of writers, Standaert among them, have pointed out how much China and the U.S. have in common - like their desire to solve the current global financial crisis. Jocelyn Eikenburg (The Wu Way points out Obama's reputation for pragmatism and quotes Chinese sources as saying: "China is not a friend, nor an enemy. The Chinese are competitors."

I expect the same tensions that existed in U.S.-China relations under the Bush Administration to continue under President Obama. And my guess is that the new President will redouble some of the U.S. efforts for a more realistic currency exchange rate. But I personally don't expect things to change much...


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